When Forecasting Fails: Making Infrastructure Decisions in an Uncertain World

Martin Wachs Lecture || April 12, 2017 || UCLA

Presented by: Joseph Schofer, Northwestern University

UCLA hosted the 10th annual ‘Martin Wachs Distinguished Lecture”, where invitee lecturer, Joe Schofer, Faculty at Northwestern University, provided a wide-ranging view about forecasting – a prominent feature of transportation planning. He explained to the audience that learning to accept the inherent limitations of the forecasting process is a necessary first step in helping planners improve their predictions of cost, utilization, performance and impact. Schofer’s lecture focused less on the shortcomings of forecasting than on “improving decisions by systematic learning from experience”. He urged the crowd to not expect that the gap between predicted outcomes and reality is going to get really small. As he commented, “the world is changing at a faster and faster pace. And those big sources of uncertainty — sources of risk — often are outside the transportation system.”

Read more about this event here.